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Alberto d’Onofrio
University of Trieste
Tuesday, November 29, 2022 - 12:00 to 13:00

Well before the current pandemics, namely in the late year 1990 and early 2000 when the first 'outbreaks' of vaccine scare appeared [1], scientific community slowly understood that Mathematical Models of spread of Infectious Diseases (IDs) must include human behaviour [2]: a (if not the) major factor impacting on the spread, prevention and control of IDs. This caused the birth of the Behavioural Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases [3] (BEID), which also overlaps and interacts with the related field of Statistical Physics of Vaccination [1] (SPV). In this Talk, after a panorama of public health motivations that led to the birth of BEID and SPV, we will illustrate some simple qualitative but informative models of BEID with particular focus on the concept of Information Index 'M', which is usually nonlocal in time [4, 5] and in space [5], and on possible (non-optimal and optimal) control actions aimed at mitigating the IDs [6].

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[1] Zhen Wang, Chris T. Bauch, Samit Bhattacharyya, Alberto d’Onofrio, Piero Manfredi, Matjaž Perc, Nicola Perra, Marcel Salathé, and Dawei Zhao. (2016) Statistical physics of vaccination. Physics Reports, 664, 1–113.

[2] Alberto d’Onofrio, Piero Manfredi, and Ernesto Salinelli. (2007). Vaccinating behaviour, information, and the dynamics of SIR vaccine preventable diseases. Theoretical Population Biology, 71(3), 301–317.

[3] Piero Manfredi and Alberto d’Onofrio (eds). (2013) Modeling the interplay between human behavior and the spread of infectious diseases. Springer.

[4] Magdalena Ochab, Piero Manfredi, Krzstof Puszynski, Alberto d’Onofrio. (2022) Multiple epidemic waves as the outcome of stochastic SIR epidemics with behavioral responses: a hybrid modeling approach. Nonlinear Dynamics (In press)

[5] Antonella Lupica, Piero Manfredi, Vitaly Volpert, Annunziata Palumbo and Alberto d’Onofrio. (2019) Spatiotemporal games of voluntary vaccination in the absence of the infection: the interplay of local versus non-local information about vaccine adverse events. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 17(2), 1090–1131.

[6] Rossella Della Marca and Alberto d’Onofrio. (2021) Volatile opinions and optimal control of vaccine awareness campaigns: Chaotic behaviour of the forward-backward sweep algorithm vs. heuristic direct optimization. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 98, Art. n. 105768.

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